Ranked Choice Voting Analysis: Adam Cote Is (Likely) Toast

Round 1 of the Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary concluded as follows (516 of 584 precincts reporting):

  1. Janet Mills: 40,576 (33.1%)
  2. Adam Cote: 34,800 (28.4%)
  3. Elizabeth Sweet: 20,042 (16.3%)
  4. Mark Eves: 17,732 (14.5%)
  5. Other 3: 9,519 (7.8%)

If we assume that everyone ranked all seven candidates, and that voters for the “other 3” candidates split their 2-5 choices evenly among those 3 + Sweet and Eves, after round 4 the results look as follows:

  1. Janet Mills: 40,576 (34.2%)
  2. Adam Cote: 34,800 (29.3%)
  3. Elizabeth Sweet: 22,818 (19.2%)
  4. Mark Eves: 20,508 (17.3%)

If we assume that 75% of Eves voters ranked Sweet 2nd, after round 5 the results look as follows:

  1. Janet Mills: 40,576 (35.7%)
  2. Elizabeth Sweet: 38,199 (33.6%)
  3. Adam Cote: 34,800 (30.6%)

It is likely that Mills and Cote do not become relevant as “ranked choices” until round 6 for non-Mills/Cote voters. In the 6th and final round I assume non-Mills/Cote/Sweet voters split Mills and Cote 50/50 as their 6th choice. As such, in my modeling Mills squeaks by Sweet with 54.2% of the vote.

My analysis below:

RCV Analysis 6.16.18

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