All posts by Benjamin J. Michaud

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President Trump Single-Handedly Resuscitated The “Blue Wave”

On June 9 I wrote that the "Blue Wave" was still dead, despite a widening in the Generic Ballot to D+7.6, due to the fact GOP strength at the ballot box was likely to be tied to economic optimism as reflected in and confirmed by the stock market. From my career perch as a money ...

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Ranked Choice Voting Analysis: Adam Cote Is (Likely) Toast

Round 1 of the Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary concluded as follows (516 of 584 precincts reporting): Janet Mills: 40,576 (33.1%) Adam Cote: 34,800 (28.4%) Elizabeth Sweet: 20,042 (16.3%) Mark Eves: 17,732 (14.5%) Other 3: 9,519 (7.8%) If we assume that everyone ranked all seven candidates, and that voters for the "other 3" candidates split their ...

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The Blue Wave Is Still Dead

According to a barrage of recent generic ballot polling the Democrats' lead has widened out again to D+7.6. Democrats should not take comfort. The anti-Trump, single-payer platform is NOT working. The chief reason for the widening is (likely) a weak stock market. Generic ballot polling acts with a lag versus the market, and the market ...

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2018: The Year of Trade – Part 6

I jumped the gun in my last post on trade policy. I believed the Trump Administration had reached a deal behind the scenes based on Steve Mnuchin's comments on Fox News Sunday. Turns out President Trump turned on a dime soon after due to the rampant speculation that he had gone soft on China. I ...

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Republicans Are Deeply Misguided Regarding The FBI Informant

The constant swirl of reporting and partisan bickering about the Trump/Russia collusion case belies the simplicity of what actually happened: George Papadopoulos learned that the Russians had dirt on Hillary Clinton in April 2016 from Joseph Mifsud George Papadopoulos blabbed about the "dirt" to an Australian diplomat in May 2016 After learning that Papadopoulos received ...

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Roger Stone Is A Liar – Part 3

Roger Stone was on Meet The Press this morning attempting to thwart the effects of Mueller's tightening noose. It did not go so well. Stone claimed that his October 2016 tweets in advance of WikiLeaks release of hacked Podesta emails were based on publicly available information provided by Julian Assange in a June 2016 interview. ...

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2018: The Year Of Trade – Part 5

This morning buffoon of a National Economic Council Director, Larry Kudlow, gave a bumbling overview of the trade framework the US agreed to with China yesterday on ABC This Week. Thankfully Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin cleared things up on Fox News Sunday. Tariffs have been put on hold on both sides, and China has committed ...