Category: General


Quinnipiac Generic Poll Tightening

The Real Clear Politics generic ballot summary currently sits at D+7. This is bad. But things could be starting to move against Democrats as evidenced by the collapse in their Quinnipiac lead. The Quinnipiac generic ballot poll has tracked well the unfavorability of the GOP, rising to as high as D+15 in February. So the ...


Roger Stone is a Liar

To the surprise of nobody who pays attention, the Mueller special counsel is looking into "Dirty Trickster" Roger Stone's ties to WikiLeaks. Stone is a known liar. Of course he was working directly with WikiLeaks to release the Russian-hacked DNC/Podesta/Clinton emails.


Probability of Two-Term Trump Presidency Rising

For someone well-versed in the follies of forecasting (working as a professional money manager), even I am stunned at the accuracy of my January 2017 op-ed laying out the case for a two-term Trump presidency. I outlined three pillars and three risks: Trump's base will never leave him, his economic agenda is a gigantic ball ...


There Was Trump/Russia Collusion – Case Closed

The Trump/Russia collusion case is as follows: George Papadopoulos knew about the hacked Clinton/DNC emails in April 2016 Donald Trump Jr. said "I love it" at the prospect of collusion in July 2016 The Clinton/DNC emails were released in July 2016 Donald Trump Jr. directly messaged WikiLeaks over Twitter in September 2016 "Dirty Trickster" Roger ...


David Brooks on Group Identity

I am no fan of David Brooks, as I believe he puts far too much faith in the power of government to legislate human behavior (see here and here). (To be fair, it is not entirely his fault. He writes for The New York Times, which is objectively anti-America, so he "needs" to infuse otherwise ...


KellyAnne Conway on the 2018 Midterms

Midterm elections are almost always bad for the party in power, with I believe 30 House seats lost on average. 2018 is likely to be no different, particularly with a large anti-Trump undertow. However, unlike the 2010 Tea Party massacre in the wake of extreme federal overreach by the Obama Administration, the current form of ...


President Trump and the “Forgotten Man”

A couple of days ago President Trump said via Twitter that his "insider polls are strong." I said to my family that I would bet that expert pollster and senior adviser to the POTUS, KellyAnne Conway, knows precisely how Trump's seemingly odious policies are playing across "Blue Wall" and battleground states. (I have now long ...