The NYT Pooping Itself Constitutionally

The New York Times continues to dazzle us with its complete disregard for the constitutional underpinnings of our great democracy. Core to the underpinning is the neutral arbiter status of the federal court system and the SCOTUS. The Ninth District chose to go activist in an attempt to thwart the "authoritarian" Donald Trump, and recently … Continue reading The NYT Pooping Itself Constitutionally

Quinnipiac Generic Poll Tightening

The Real Clear Politics generic ballot summary currently sits at D+7. This is bad. But things could be starting to move against Democrats as evidenced by the collapse in their Quinnipiac lead. The Quinnipiac generic ballot poll has tracked well the unfavorability of the GOP, rising to as high as D+15 in February. So the … Continue reading Quinnipiac Generic Poll Tightening

Probability of Two-Term Trump Presidency Rising

For someone well-versed in the follies of forecasting (working as a professional money manager), even I am stunned at the accuracy of my January 2017 op-ed laying out the case for a two-term Trump presidency. I outlined three pillars and three risks: Trump's base will never leave him, his economic agenda is a gigantic ball … Continue reading Probability of Two-Term Trump Presidency Rising

KellyAnne Conway on the 2018 Midterms

Midterm elections are almost always bad for the party in power, with I believe 30 House seats lost on average. 2018 is likely to be no different, particularly with a large anti-Trump undertow. However, unlike the 2010 Tea Party massacre in the wake of extreme federal overreach by the Obama Administration, the current form of … Continue reading KellyAnne Conway on the 2018 Midterms

President Trump and the “Forgotten Man”

A couple of days ago President Trump said via Twitter that his "insider polls are strong." I said to my family that I would bet that expert pollster and senior adviser to the POTUS, KellyAnne Conway, knows precisely how Trump's seemingly odious policies are playing across "Blue Wall" and battleground states. (I have now long … Continue reading President Trump and the “Forgotten Man”

Martin Wolf on Income Inequality

Folks really, really need to be aware of highly intelligent partisan actors wielding data. Case in point is Ben Shapiro, as outlined yesterday - they are very dangerous. Today I want to highlight Martin Wolf of the Financial Times, and his pet hobby: trumpeting the seemingly deleterious effects of income inequality. The title of his recent … Continue reading Martin Wolf on Income Inequality

The New York Times: Trump’s “Singular Focus”

There was a fascinating article in The New York Times yesterday that made a very clear distinction between the Trump Administration's economic policy worldview and that of both major political parties. It is precisely the distinction I made to family members all the way back in December 2015. The money quote: "In recent decades, the two … Continue reading The New York Times: Trump’s “Singular Focus”

Beware of Ben Shapiro

Almost always multiple things can be true at once, for example: The New York Times is the greatest political newspaper on earth (IMO); but also the megaphone of the Obama/Merkel-led global political elite (read: anti-free market capitalism). Ben Shapiro, same thing: fantastic political commentator, as he is typically laser-focused on the facts of any situation; … Continue reading Beware of Ben Shapiro